Fitch Rankings has revised Nigeria’s credit score outlook to Sure from Solid whilst asserting its long-term issuer default scores at ‘B’.
The ranking motion was once introduced on Friday, October 9, 2026, in step with the Fitch Rankings Nigeria Ranking Motion Record.
The record famous that the enhanced outlook displays more potent foreign currency reserves, ongoing financial reforms and moderating inflation, even supposing fiscal pressures and prime debt-servicing prices stay considerations.
Fitch cites more potent reserves, reforms
Fitch mentioned Nigeria’s stepped forward macroeconomic coverage framework and more potent exterior monetary place have higher its resilience to financial shocks.
- “Fitch Rankings has revised the Outlook on Nigeria’s Lengthy-Time period Issuer Default Rankings (IDRs) to Sure from Solid and affirmed the IDRs at ‘B’,” the record learn partially.
The company famous that gross foreign currency reserves rose to $54.9 billion as of September 25, 2026, from $32 billion in mid-April 2024.
Fitch attributed the rise to portfolio inflows, export receipts, remittances and the formalisation of foreign currency transactions.
Nigeria’s present account surplus is projected to succeed in 6.4% of GDP in 2026, whilst reserve protection is anticipated to hit 6.3 months of present exterior bills by means of year-end.
Internet foreign currency reserves rose to $34.8 billion on the finish of 2025, from about $4 billion on the finish of 2023, following a discount within the Central Financial institution of Nigeria’s foreign currency liabilities.
Fitch additionally highlighted stepped forward oil manufacturing and home refining. Crude oil manufacturing, except condensates, averaged 1.52 million barrels in step with day in the second one quarter of 2026, whilst the ramp-up of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and rehabilitation of different refineries have decreased delicate gasoline imports and foreign currency call for.
Nigeria’s expansion and inflation outlook
Fitch forecasts Nigeria’s GDP expansion at 4.3% in 2026, up from 4% in 2025, and expects expansion to stay above 4% in 2027 and 2028.
- The company expects reasonable annual inflation to reasonable to fifteen.4% in 2026, lower than part its 2024 stage. Alternatively, this stays above the 5.6% median for international locations rated ‘B’.
- Fitch described the CBN’s September financial coverage adjustment as calibrated easing however mentioned protecting the 45% money reserve requirement would proceed to soak up naira liquidity and prohibit credit score expansion.
It additionally warned that prime meals and gasoline costs, additional petrol value will increase and safety dangers may weaken family earning and financial expansion.
Top debt prices constrain Nigeria’s ranking
Regardless of the enhanced outlook, Fitch expects Nigeria’s fiscal deficit to widen to a few.6% of GDP in 2026, from 3.1% in 2025, partially on account of upper executive spending.
Tax reforms are anticipated to boost non-oil profit to 7.5% of GDP, an identical to 66% of presidency profit, even supposing implementation constraints may prohibit the beneficial properties.
- Fitch tasks that the overall executive interest-to-revenue ratio will reasonable 27% between 2026 and 2028, in comparison with a 14% median for ‘B’-rated international locations. The Federal Executive’s ratio is anticipated to stay above 50%.
- The company mentioned sustained decrease inflation, more potent reserves, persevered reforms and stepped forward non-oil profit mobilisation may fortify a long run ranking improve. Alternatively, weaker coverage credibility, renewed foreign currency pressures, decreased exterior financing or a sustained widening of the fiscal deficit may cause destructive ranking motion.
In September 2026, Fitch also warned that Nigeria’s use of Total Return Swaps and repurchase agreements may create transparency, liquidity and creditor-recovery dangers. Its considerations adopted an previous caution in June over a proposed $5 billion TRS facility with First Abu Dhabi Financial institution.
Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves achieve $55 billion
CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso said Nigeria’s gross foreign exchange reserves had reached a record $55 billion, whilst internet reserves rose to $46 billion.
Talking on the Nigeria-Asia Connectivity Discussion on Thursday, Cardoso mentioned foreign currency marketplace steadiness and more potent reserves had been serving to to spice up investor self assurance.
Internet reserves higher by means of $11.2 billion from $34.8 billion on the finish of 2025. The measure deducts near-term liabilities, together with foreign currency swaps and ahead contracts, from the CBN’s holdings to suggest budget to be had for instant exterior responsibilities.
Cardoso additionally famous that internet reserves had fallen underneath $1 billion on the top of Nigeria’s foreign currency disaster.
Fitch’s resolution leaves Nigeria’s credit standing at ‘B’. The Sure outlook signifies the possibility of an improve if enhancements are sustained; it does no longer imply the ranking has already been upgraded.