The Federal Govt says Fitch Scores’ choice to revise Nigeria’s credit standing outlook from Strong to Certain displays development in financial reforms, foreign currency echange marketplace changes and efforts to beef up the rustic’s exterior place.
Fitch introduced the revision on 9 October, holding Nigeria’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default score at ‘B’.
In a commentary issued on Saturday, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Financial system, Taiwo Oyedele, mentioned Fitch cited higher foreign currency echange reserves, easing inflation and advanced financial potentialities a few of the elements supporting the outlook revision.
In keeping with the minister, Nigeria’s gross foreign currency echange reserves rose to $54.9 billion as of 25 September 2026, from $32 billion in mid-April 2024.
He attributed the rise to extra formalised foreign currency echange transactions, portfolio inflows, upper exports and remittances.
Fitch additionally projected that Nigeria would file a present account surplus identical to six.4 in line with cent of gross home product in 2026.
Financial enlargement and inflation
The rankings company projected that Nigeria’s actual gross home product would develop through 4.3 in line with cent in 2026, when put next with 4 in line with cent in 2025, with enlargement last above 4 in line with cent in 2027 and 2028.
Fitch expects non-oil actions to stay the primary motive force of monetary growth.
The projection comes as Nigeria’s financial system recorded enlargement of four.43 in line with cent year-on-year in the second one quarter of 2026, in step with the Nationwide Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The determine was once upper than the three.89 in line with cent recorded within the first quarter of 2026 and the 4.23 in line with cent recorded within the corresponding quarter of 2025.
The International Financial institution’s October 2026 Nigeria Construction Replace projected moderate annual financial enlargement of four.4 in line with cent between 2026 and 2028, figuring out products and services and agriculture a few of the participants to financial process.
On inflation, Fitch projected a mean price of 15.4 in line with cent in 2026, not up to part the extent recorded in 2024.
The NBS reported that Nigeria’s headline inflation price eased marginally to fifteen.39 in line with cent in August 2026, from 15.43 in line with cent in July.
The figures supply fresh context for Fitch’s evaluation of inflation, despite the fact that the company’s annual moderate forecast isn’t like the per month inflation price reported through the NBS.
Reserves, oil manufacturing and public debt
Fitch additionally famous trends in Nigeria’s oil sector, together with crude oil manufacturing assembly the rustic’s OPEC goal of one.5 million barrels in line with day from Might 2026.
Mr Oyedele mentioned higher home refining was once serving to to scale back gasoline imports and foreign currency echange call for.
On public price range, Fitch expects Nigeria’s tax reforms to extend non-oil income relative to the scale of the financial system.
The company projected that basic govt debt would moderate 32 in line with cent of GDP between 2026 and 2028, underneath the median of 56 in line with cent for international locations with a ‘B’ score.
Fitch additionally highlighted Nigeria’s home debt marketplace and the banking sector recapitalisation workout, noting that many banks had capital adequacy ratios above 20 in line with cent.
Alternatively, the company known continual demanding situations, together with inflation last above ranges in peer international locations, govt income being low relative to the scale of the financial system, and hobby bills accounting for a top share of presidency income.
The minister mentioned the government would proceed imposing reforms aimed toward expanding income, making improvements to spending potency, strengthening debt control and supporting non-oil financial enlargement.
Different score trends
The Fitch choice follows different trends in Nigeria’s global credit score tests.
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In Might 2026, S&P International Scores upgraded Nigeria’s credit standing from ‘B-’ to ‘B’. In August, Moody’s revised its outlook on Nigeria to Certain whilst holding its ‘B3’ score.
Mr Oyedele famous that the federal government’s medium-term function remained to reinforce Nigeria’s credit score status and paintings against investment-grade standing.
He mentioned the management would proceed to concentrate on foreign currency echange marketplace reforms, tax income mobilisation, fiscal governance, extra environment friendly public spending and enlargement in non-oil sectors.
The minister mentioned its broader function was once to “translate financial reforms into jobs, meals safety, toughen for small companies and advanced dwelling requirements”.
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